India's best week since February 2021 came on cheaper oil and foreign money
Angelo WilsonFinancial AnalystSRF Market Watch, Issue 01. India's markets and economy for the week ending 6 November 2026, and what they mean for a business.
Summary
- The Nifty 50 rose 8.58% to 25,030.35 and the Sensex 8.82%, the Nifty's best week since February 2021.
- Brent crude fell 13.35% to $98.29 a barrel on hopes that the US–Iran war will de-escalate after the US midterms.
- Foreign investors bought a net ₹32,210 crore of Indian shares from Monday to Thursday, while the S&P 500 fell 2.99%.
- Inflation is the catch: September CPI rose to 5.54%, which is why the RBI raised its repo rate to 5.50% in October.
This is the first issue of SRF Market Watch, our weekly read on India's markets and economy. Each week we set out what moved, why it moved, and what it means for a business. The full report, with every chart and the data ledger, is the PDF at the end of this page.
The week in four numbers: India rallied while Wall Street slid
- +8.58%Nifty 50
- −4.41%Nasdaq Composite
- −13.35%Brent crude
- ₹32,210 crBought by foreign investors, Monday to Thursday
What moved this week?
- Best week since February 2021. The Nifty 50 rose 8.58% to 25,030.35 and the Sensex 8.82%, with gains on all five trading days.
- Oil cracked. Brent fell 13.35% to $98.29 a barrel on hopes of de-escalation in the US–Iran war after the US midterm elections.
- Foreign money came back. Foreign investors bought a net ₹32,210 crore of shares from Monday to Thursday on provisional exchange data, including the largest single-day purchase since February 2021.
- The rupee and bonds rallied. The dollar fell 1.07% against the rupee, to 93.91, and the 10-year G-sec yield fell 24 basis points to 7.17% by Thursday.
- Wall Street went the other way. The S&P 500 fell 2.99% as AI stocks sold off. Thursday was its worst day since April 2025.
- Inflation is the catch. September CPI rose to 5.54%. That is why the RBI raised rates in October and keeps a tightening stance.
Why did India rally while Wall Street slid?
Two simple pipes join India to world markets. The first is oil, India's largest import. When oil falls, India needs fewer dollars, so the rupee firms, inflation fears ease and bond yields fall.
The second is global money, which goes where returns look best for the risk. When the most crowded trade wobbles, investors look for markets that are cheap and not exposed to it. This week that trade was US AI stocks, and both pipes flowed India's way.
The chain started with the US midterms, where the Democrats won control of the House. That raised hopes of an Iran de-escalation, and Brent fell 13.35%. The dollar fell 1.07% against the rupee and the 10-year yield fell 24 bp, while AI stocks fell and funds rotated to India.
Every Indian measure we track was supportive: shares up, foreign buying, a stronger rupee, lower yields and cheaper oil. Globally, the AI sell-off made investors defensive. When the two readings split like this, the driver is specific to India.
The rally depends on those drivers holding.
The scoreboard, week ending 6 November 2026. Fewer rupees per dollar is a stronger rupee.
| Market | Level | 1 week | 2026 so far |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 25,030.35 | +8.58% | −4.21% |
| Sensex | 81,028.02 | +8.82% | n/a |
| Nifty Bank | 59,086.00 | +8.04% | n/a |
| Nifty Smallcap 100 | 18,975.05 | +2.77% | n/a |
| 10-year G-sec yield | 7.17% | −24 bp | +58 bp |
| Rupees per dollar | 93.91 | −1.07% | +4.50% |
| S&P 500 | 7,353.73 | −2.99% | +7.42% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 24,315.00 | −4.41% | +4.62% |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 4.84% | −10 bp | n/a |
| Brent crude | $98.29/bbl | −13.35% | +61.53% |
| WTI crude | $90.52/bbl | −13.06% | +57.65% |
| Brent in rupees | ₹9,230/bbl | −14.28% | +68.79% |
What happened in Indian shares?
The gains sat with large companies. Nifty Bank climbed 8.04%, but the Midcap 100 rose 5.77% and the Smallcap 100 only 2.77%. Financials, realty and oil and gas led, while IT and pharma barely moved.
Foreign investors drove it. They bought ₹32,210 crore from Monday to Thursday, while domestic institutions sold a net ₹18,228 crore, taking profits. Foreign funds buy mostly large, liquid stocks, which is why the top of the market led.
Even after this week, the Nifty is down 4.21% for 2026. Volatility rose sharply on Friday as traders bought protection after the global sell-off, and a nervous rally is less settled than a calm one.
For a company raising money, a foreign-led rally reopens the window for large share sales: QIPs, block deals and IPOs. Mid-sized firms should not assume the same appetite, since domestic institutions were sellers. Our capital-raising work starts from that question of who is buying.
What did rates and the rupee do?
By Thursday's close the 10-year G-sec yield had fallen 24 bp to 7.17%, its lowest since late September. Cheaper oil reduces the inflation risk that led the RBI to raise the repo rate to 5.50% in October. Markets now expect fewer further hikes.
Yields are still 58 bp higher than at the end of 2025. The war-driven oil shock and October's hike pushed borrowing costs up through the year.
The rupee strengthened to 93.91 per dollar, its strongest close in about six months, as the dollar fell 1.07% against it. Heavy foreign buying of shares, cheaper oil and lower US yields all helped. Over 2026 the rupee is still 4.50% weaker.
FX reserves fell $2.7 billion to $717.1 billion in the week to 30 October, reflecting earlier RBI dollar sales to support the rupee. For what a weak rupee does to a company run across two countries, see our column on the rupee.
What the rupee and rates meant for Indian businesses this week
| Business | Effect this week | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Oil, chemicals, airline and electronics importers | Helped | Each dollar of imports costs fewer rupees; Brent in rupees fell 14.28% |
| Companies with dollar loans | Helped | Repayments cost less in rupees, but the rupee is weaker than in January, so keep hedges in place |
| IT, pharma and textile exporters | Slightly hurt | Dollar revenue converts into fewer rupees than last week |
| Borrowers in bonds and bank loans | Mixed | Bond yields fell, but bank loan rates follow the higher repo rate |
| US firms with Indian cost centres | Slightly hurt | Indian salaries and rent cost a little more in dollars than last week |
What happened to oil and global markets?
Brent fell 13.35% to $98.29 a barrel. Prices tumbled on Wednesday as the midterm result raised hopes of a less aggressive US stance in the Iran war. They rebounded on Thursday after tanker attacks in the Gulf, and Brent is still up 61.53% this year.
The S&P 500 fell 2.99% and the Nasdaq 4.41%. Thursday was the worst day since April 2025, as investors questioned AI spending and feared tighter rules on data centres. Asian tech markets in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan fell steeply on Friday.
The US 10-year yield fell 10 bp to 4.84% as investors moved into bonds. The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% in October.
Cheaper oil helps almost every Indian company, from airlines and paints to logistics, but the swings are violent. Budget on a range, not on this week's price. If US firms cut AI spending, Indian IT services and data-centre suppliers could feel it in 2027 order books.
How is the Indian economy doing?
Growth is holding up. The manufacturing PMI was 54.7 in October and the services PMI 55.8, a four-month high. Gross GST collections reached ₹2.31 lakh crore, up 22.9% on a year earlier, helped by festive spending and costlier imports.
Inflation is climbing. CPI inflation rose to 5.54% in September from 4.83%, and food inflation reached 7.74%, led by vegetables such as onions. The RBI raised the repo rate to 5.50% from 5.25% in October and moved to a stance of calibrated tightening.
The RBI's next meeting is on 2 to 4 December, and October's CPI, due on Thursday 12 November, is the next test. For a business, plan for loan rates to stay high or rise until inflation turns. Firms that cannot pass on rising food and input prices will feel the squeeze.
What does the week mean for the US–India corridor?
The main channel this week was money. US stocks sold off, global funds trimmed AI-heavy markets, and Indian shares took the flow. Trade terms did not move: the US tariff on most Indian goods stays at 10%, and a trade deal is still not signed.
US funds invested in India gained twice, from a rising index and a stronger rupee. Indian firms with US operations or dollar debt found dollar costs cheaper in rupees. For US companies with Indian capability centres, costs rose slightly in dollars this week but stay lower than in January.
Our US–India desk works on both sides of these links, from transfer pricing to the filings money sets off as it crosses the border.
Why did money leave AI and come to India?
Global investors hold a limited pool of money and rebalance it constantly. For two years the most crowded trade was US and Asian AI stocks. India, with almost no AI chip companies, lost foreign money.
On Thursday 5 November the Nasdaq fell sharply on fears about AI spending and new rules on data centres. The same day, foreign investors bought a net ₹14,975 crore of Indian shares, the largest single-day purchase since February 2021. Domestic institutions sold ₹10,445 crore into the rally.
- Large banks and financials were helped. They are liquid, domestic and not exposed to AI, the first choice for foreign funds.
- Companies planning share sales were helped, since strong foreign demand opens a window for QIPs and IPOs.
- Mid and small caps gained little. Foreign funds bought large caps, and domestic institutions sold.
- IT services and the AI supply chain are at risk over a longer term, because slower US AI spending would reduce future orders.
What could make this view wrong?
The rally rests on oil staying lower, and Brent rebounded on Thursday after new tanker attacks. A rebound in US tech, a renewed oil spike from the Gulf or a hawkish surprise from the Fed could pull the money out again.
Domestic institutions selling into the rally is a warning too. Local investors see prices as stretched in the short run, and flows can reverse as quickly as they arrive.
What is coming up next week?
The week ahead
| When (IST) | Event | Why Indian markets care |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov, 19:00 | US jobs report for October | Strong jobs would revive talk of Fed hikes and could slow the flow of money into India |
| Sun 8 Nov | Diwali Muhurat trading session | A short, symbolic session; volumes are thin and moves rarely carry a signal |
| Tue 10 Nov | NSE closed for Diwali Balipratipada | A four-day trading week, so global news over the holiday lands at once on Wednesday |
| Tue 10 Nov, 19:00 | US CPI inflation for October | Shapes the Fed's December decision and the direction of US yields and the dollar |
| Thu 12 Nov, 16:00 | India CPI inflation for October (September: 5.54%) | Decides how far the RBI's tightening goes, and moves bond yields and loan rates |
Oil stays on the watch list all week. Every sustained move in Brent shows up in the rupee within days, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz decides where Brent goes.
Where do these numbers come from?
Every figure here was taken from at least two independent publishers and checked against a tolerance for its type. All of them were re-opened at their sources before publication. The PDF's data ledger lists each figure, its sources and how it was checked.
The primary sources include NSE, MoSPI, the RBI, the US Treasury and PIB. Market data is cross-checked at Reuters, Business Standard and the other publishers named in the ledger. Data cut-off is 6 November 2026, 18:15 IST, with US markets and crude to the Thursday close.
SRF Market Watch is prepared by SRF Capital Studio for information and discussion. It describes market and economic conditions. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of any service.
Our market intelligence work turns this kind of reading into a brief on one company's own market.
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